2025年1-5月投资数据点评：固投持续走弱，交通类投资边际改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][27]. Core Viewpoints - Fixed asset investment continues to weaken, with manufacturing investment also declining. National Bureau of Statistics reported a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.7% in fixed asset investment from January to May 2025, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to January-April. Manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, also down by 0.3 percentage points [3][4]. - Infrastructure investment shows marginal weakness, while transportation investment has improved slightly. Infrastructure investment (full caliber) increased by 10.4% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from January-April. Transportation, warehousing, and postal investment increased by 4.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from January-April [5][6]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a narrowing decline in starts and an expanding decline in completions. Real estate investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to January-April [12][20]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment has weakened, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.7% from January to May 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from January-April. Manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, also down by 0.3 percentage points [3][4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (full caliber) increased by 10.4% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from January-April. Excluding electricity, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points. Transportation, warehousing, and postal investment increased by 4.0%, up 0.1 percentage points [5][6]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to January-April. Starts decreased by 21.4%, while completions decreased by 17.3% [12][20]. Investment Analysis Opinion - The current industry total is weak, but regional investments may gain elasticity as national strategic layouts deepen. Recommended undervalued state-owned enterprises include China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction. Attention is drawn to China Communications Construction and China Metallurgical Group [20].