瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the good condition of corn quality rate and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have raised concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, freight has decreased recently, leading to continuous outflow of grain sources, accelerating the decline of trade inventory and increasing the market's bullish expectation. In the North China and Huanghuai areas, traders have shifted to purchasing wheat, so corn shipments have decreased, port inventory has continued to decline, supply - side pressure has continued to ease, and the bullish expectation in the market has strengthened. However, there are rumors that imported corn will start auctioning at the end of June. For the futures market, after a continuous rise, the upward trend has slowed down recently, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. - For the corn starch market, due to the short - term shortage of raw corn supply in parts of North China and continuous losses in corn starch production, the industry's operating rate has continued to decline to a new low this year. With the obvious reduction of supply pressure and the support of firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch has performed relatively well, and industry inventory has also slightly declined. Affected by the slight decline of corn, the starch price has dropped with the market, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2359 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 116 yuan/ton; the futures open interest of active contracts for yellow corn is 637414 hands, a decrease of 64999 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch is - 3960 hands, an increase of 4522 hands; the registered warrant volume of yellow corn is 215285 hands, a decrease of 1000 hands; the main contract CS - C spread is 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 444.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.25 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest is 1614274 contracts, a decrease of 54876 contracts; CBOT corn non - commercial net long position is - 14435 contracts, a decrease of 95494 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2407.65 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.96 yuan/ton; the factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the fob price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is unchanged; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 31 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 48.65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.96 yuan/ton; the difference between Shandong starch and corn is 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons, an increase of 1.82 million tons; in Brazil, the sown area is 131 million hectares, and the output is 22.6 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons; in Argentina, the sown area is 53 million hectares, and the output is 7.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; in China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, and the output is 44.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons; in Ukraine, the output is 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 101.6 tons, a decrease of 13.4 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 465.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 391 tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of corn is 18 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of corn starch is 23.72 tons, an increase of 3.37 tons; the monthly output of feed is 2664 tons, a decrease of 113.2 tons; the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it is - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it is - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 33.48 days, a decrease of 1.87 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 118.6 tons, a decrease of 2.17 tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 49.06%, a decrease of 0.86%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 48.71%, a decrease of 3.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.09%, an increase of 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.49%, an increase of 0.07%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 8.87%, a decrease of 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.87%, a decrease of 0.49% [2]. Industry News - The US EPA announced a new proposal on June 12, planning to significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biofuels from 2026 - 2027. The total biofuel blending volume will increase to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and further to 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, a significant increase compared to 22.33 billion gallons in 2025 [2]. - The BAGE reported that as of June 11, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn was 46.7%, only 2.9 percentage points higher than a week ago. The USDA lowered the estimated ending inventory of the US 2024/25 from 1.415 billion bushels last month to 1.365 billion bushels, and the 2025/26 ending inventory from 1.8 billion bushels to 1.75 billion bushels, both lower than analysts' expectations [2].