Guohai Securities·2025-06-16 11:19Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" for investment, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [2][8]. Core Insights - The price center of H acid is expected to rise due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a current market average price of 41,750 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5,750 RMB/ton since early January 2025 [6][8]. - The active dye industry is undergoing a phase of industrial upgrading and consolidation, with many small and medium enterprises being eliminated due to sustained price pressure since late 2019 [6][8]. - H acid, a key raw material for producing active dyes, constitutes 30%-50% of the total cost, and its price increase is likely to positively impact active dye prices, which have recently risen from 20 RMB/kg to 23 RMB/kg [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - H acid production faces challenges such as high energy consumption and significant environmental pollution, leading to production halts in developed countries, with global capacity concentrated in China and India [6][8]. - Domestic effective H acid capacity is currently below 60,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap exceeding 10% [6][8]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost support from H acid is expected to facilitate a smoother transmission of price increases in active dyes, benefiting companies with integrated production capacities [6][8]. - The report highlights that companies like Zhejiang Longsheng, Jinchicken Co., Luntai Co., and Jihua Group are well-positioned to benefit from these dynamics [6][8]. Key Companies and Profit Forecast - Key companies to watch include: - Zhejiang Longsheng (Stock Code: 600352.SH) with an estimated EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16 [9]. - Jinchicken Co. (Stock Code: 300798.SZ) currently un-rated but with significant production capacity [9]. - Luntai Co. (Stock Code: 002440.SZ) with an estimated EPS of 0.25 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 33 [9]. - Jihua Group (Stock Code: 603980.SH) with an estimated EPS of 0.25 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 81 [9].