金属周期品高频数据周报：伦敦金现价格再创历史新高水平-20250616

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high, indicating strong liquidity in the market [11] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical average profit levels due to new regulatory conditions and government policies aimed at better aligning supply with demand [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 3.74% week-on-week, reaching 3433 USD/oz [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [20] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in early June increased by 3.25% [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [10] - The rebar price decreased by 2.23% to 3070 RMB/ton [10] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a week-on-week increase of 4.12 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20760 RMB/ton, up 2.87% week-on-week [10] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate remains at a high level since 2011, with the price at 173500 RMB/ton [10] - The profit margin for flat glass is -58 RMB/ton, indicating low profitability in the real estate completion chain [77] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar is at a low level, with a current difference of 130 RMB/ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.13, indicating a stable pricing environment [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1243.05 points, up 7.63% week-on-week [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, while the commercial vehicle sector showed the best performance with a 7.24% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]