市政环保类红利资产梳理：现金流改善+分红率提升建议关注港股固废水务公司-20250616

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the municipal environmental protection sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is entering a period of stock operation with significant capital expenditure reduction, leading to positive free cash flow for companies. By the end of 2023, the national urban domestic waste harmless treatment rate reached 99.98%, and the water supply coverage rates for cities, counties, and rural areas were 99.4%, 98.3%, and 87.5% respectively, indicating a balanced urban water supply capacity [5][4]. - The decline in Hong Kong interest rates is expected to lead to a revaluation of dividend assets, particularly in public utilities such as electricity and municipal environmental protection [5][4]. - The report suggests focusing on public utility assets based on cash flow improvement expectations, dividend performance, and dividend yield as screening criteria, recommending companies such as China Everbright International, Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection, and others [5][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report highlights the stable profitability of waste incineration power generation and water companies, which follow a permitted return model. The average reasonable profit level for water supply companies has been set at a net asset return rate of 8-10% since 1998 [5][4]. Cash Flow and Dividend Insights - Companies in the waste incineration and water sectors are expected to see improved cash flow as they transition to positive free cash flow. The report notes that historical issues with high accounts receivable are being addressed, with local government debt resolution expected to accelerate accounts receivable collection in 2024 [5][4]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their dividend rates and expected yields for 2025, including: - China Everbright International: projected dividend yield of 5.9% - Green Power Environmental: projected H-share dividend yield of 8.4% - Beikong Water Group: projected dividend yield of 6.8% - Guangdong Investment: projected dividend yield of 6.4% - Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection: projected H-share dividend yield of 5.6% [5][4].