利率周报：经济修复分化延续，债市或窄幅震荡-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the negative economic cycle of the past two years has ended. The economy is expected to stabilize, and the marginal change may lie in consumption. The bond market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bear or bull market in the short term [1]. - Interest - rate bonds may have a phased narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. The company is bearish on ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and the 10Y Treasury bond may operate in a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.8% by the end of the year [1]. - The significant reduction in long - term time deposit rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The decline in deposit rates will promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the credit spread may be further compressed. It is recommended to focus on 5Y credit bonds with a yield of over 2% [1]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro News - As of the end of May 2025, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [10]. - In May 2025, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, while core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [11]. - In the first five months of 2025, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [17]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption: Continued Recovery - As of June 8, the daily average retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 19.0% and 10.4% year - on - year respectively. As of June 13, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days decreased by 48.7% year - on - year. As of May 30, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 7.7% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [19][24]. 2.2 Transportation: Temporary Tariff Relief Releases Short - term Foreign Trade Dividends - As of June 8, the container throughput of ports increased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the CCFI composite index decreased by 28.3% year - on - year, and the average Baltic Dry Freight Index increased by 1.0% year - on - year. As of June 11, the average migration scale index decreased by 15.2% year - on - year. As of June 8, the number of civil aviation flights increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up and delivery volume increased by 16.2% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively. The railway freight volume decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 1.8% year - on - year [28][30][40]. 2.3 Operating Rates: Differentiation in the Petrochemical Industry Chain - As of June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.3pct year - on - year. As of June 12, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 3.0pct year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 3.2pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 0.6pct year - on - year. As of June 13, the average PX operating rate was 84.3%, and the average PTA operating rate was 80.5% [50][53][55]. 2.4 Real Estate: Continued Pressure - As of June 13, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 17.4% year - on - year, and the number of transactions increased by 21.5% year - on - year. As of June 6, the second - hand housing transaction area of 9 sample cities decreased by 15.8% year - on - year. As of June 8, the listing volume index and listing price index of second - hand housing in national cities decreased by 65.5% and 7.6% year - on - year respectively. The number of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the planned construction area decreased by 50.6% year - on - year, the floor price decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the land premium rate decreased by 0.9pct year - on - year [62][64][68]. 2.5 Prices: Commodity Prices Under Pressure - As of June 13, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 17.0% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The CRB spot composite index increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the commodity price BPI decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 30.3% year - on - year, the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the average spot price of rebar decreased by 12.8% year - on - year, the average spot price of iron ore decreased by 12.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of glass decreased by 31.4% year - on - year [70][73][74]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Slight Differentiation at the Short End, and the Bond Yield Curve Flattening - On June 13, overnight Shibor, R001, R007, DR001, IBO001, and IBO007 showed different trends compared to June 9. Most Treasury bond yields declined, and the yields of national development bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit also changed. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB decreased compared to June 6 [79][87][96]. 4. Institutional Behavior: Interest - Rate Bond Funds Increasing Duration, Credit - Bond Funds with Stable Duration - As of June 15, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies decreased by 1.05pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate percentile within the year was below 10%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure interest - rate bond funds has first decreased and then increased, while that of medium - and long - term pure credit - bond funds has shown a slight oscillation [100][101][104]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Interest - rate bonds may have a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. Be bearish on ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. When the 10Y Treasury bond yield reaches the upper limit of the range, increase the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration. Focus on 5Y credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. Also, pay more attention to Hong Kong financial stocks, especially Hong Kong bank stocks with large valuation repair space [1][108].