Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation push up US soybean prices, increasing import costs. In China, ample soybean supply and high - level oil mill operations lead to rising bean - meal inventory. With the increase in import costs, bean - meal spot prices stabilize, and market trading volume drops significantly. In the short term, the bean - meal market is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation situation with a likely oscillatory trend [17] - For the pig market, the supply side has a normal slaughter rhythm and decreasing average slaughter weight, with increasing medium - term supply pressure. The demand side is in a seasonal off - peak, with weak consumption unable to support prices. Although the pig futures price rebounds in the short term due to policies and feed price hikes, weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, potentially limiting the upside of the futures market. Pig prices are expected to oscillate [17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE bean - meal main contract 2509 rose 0.13% to 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. DCE pig main contract 2509 fell 0.07% to 13780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.44% to 1069 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - On June 13, in the US Midwest agricultural main production areas, the western region will have scattered to widespread scattered showers until Sunday. Before Saturday, the southern region's temperature is near to above normal, and the northern region's temperature is below normal, then above normal from Sunday to Monday. The eastern region will have scattered showers until Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Before Saturday, the temperature is near to above normal, near normal on Sunday, and near to above normal on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From June 7 to 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than expected [5] - On June 16, the import cost of US soybeans was 4603 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [5] - On June 13, the total bean - meal sales of major oil mills in China were 97,300 tons, a decrease of 570,600 tons from the previous day. Spot sales were 69,300 tons, an increase of 4400 tons, and far - month basis sales were 28,000 tons, a decrease of 575,000 tons. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.82%, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous day [5] - As of June 12, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 95%, up from 91% the previous week and lower than 97% in the same period last year [5] - As of the week of June 11, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 99.73%, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week [6] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased. On June 12, the average weight of slaughtered pigs was 125.76 kg/head, a decrease of 0.24 kg/head from the previous week. Farmers' bearish expectations led to active weight - loss slaughter, and the proportion of standard pigs purchased by slaughterhouses increased [6] - On June 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 120 yuan/head, a decrease of 23 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 127 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head. Due to weak demand and increased supply, both types of profits decreased [6] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point faster than from January to April [6] - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the main employment population remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate decreased for three consecutive months [7] - In May, China's new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan. At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of bean - meal, rapeseed - meal, and pig prices, as well as their basis and inventory data [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For bean - meal, short - term trends are oscillatory due to the combination of high domestic supply and increasing import costs [17] - For pigs, prices are expected to oscillate due to the contradiction between supply pressure and weak demand [17]
豆粕生猪:进口成本大增,豆粕现货企稳
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-06-16 13:08