消费行业：5月社零提速彰显国补刺激、新消费活跃

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly benefiting from government subsidies and new consumption trends [4][5][46]. Core Insights - The acceleration in retail sales in May is attributed to national subsidies, new consumption patterns, and the early start of the 618 shopping festival [4][7]. - Concerns exist regarding the continuity of national subsidies, while new consumption trends are gaining more attention due to their high growth potential [2][14]. - The overall retail sales growth is primarily supported by consumption subsidy policies, although underlying consumer demand remains weak [4][12]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a total of 41,326 billion yuan, while the cumulative retail sales from January to May increased by 5.0% to 203,171 billion yuan [15]. - The retail sales growth rates for various categories in May include: - Home appliances: +53.0% - Communication equipment: +33.0% - Cultural and office supplies: +30.5% - Furniture: +25.6% [16][24]. Consumer Segments - New consumption sectors, such as new tea drinks and sports entertainment products, are showing significant growth, with May retail sales for sports and entertainment items increasing by 28.3% year-on-year [13][18]. - The gold and jewelry sector also saw a rise in retail sales by 12.3% from January to May, driven by the demand for value preservation amid rising gold prices [13][16]. Government Subsidies - The government has allocated 1,500 billion yuan for consumer subsidies in 2024 and 3,000 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing the impact of these subsidies on consumer spending [4][34]. - The report highlights that the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, although there may be limitations on the subsidy amounts in the latter half of the year [12][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in various sectors, including: - Consumer services: Gu Ming, Mi Xue Group - Food and beverage: Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer - Pet industry: Guibao Pet, Petty Co., Ltd. - Home appliances: Midea Group, Hisense Visual [46].