下半年出口展望：抢出口：前置了多少需求

Group 1: Export Trends - The surge in exports since Q4 2024 is linked to preemptive shipping behavior in response to tariff expectations, particularly noted in November 2024 when exports to the U.S. significantly exceeded seasonal norms[7] - By April 2025, the export growth rate was expected to stabilize around 4.7%, despite the impact of preemptive shipping and tariffs[19] - The overall export growth rate is projected to decline slightly in the second half of 2025, with a central tendency around 2.7% due to potential economic downturns in the U.S.[25] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - Tariff expectations have driven export behaviors, with significant preemptive shipping observed when tariffs were anticipated but not yet implemented[12] - The introduction of a 10% tariff on U.S. and transshipment goods could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate central tendency[25] - The central tendency for exports to the U.S. increased from 1.1% to 2.8%, while exports to transshipment areas rose from 8.5% to 12.7%[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential demand shrinkage in the U.S. and other countries due to tariffs, which could lead to an unexpected decline in export growth rates[26] - The report emphasizes that the actual contribution of genuine new orders is significant, with about half of the high export growth rate from November 2024 to April 2025 attributed to real demand rather than preemptive shipping[13]