东方战略周观察：伊以地缘冲突升级凸显美国中东和平计划困境

Group 1: Geopolitical Conflict Overview - The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated with Israel's attacks starting on June 13, leading to multiple retaliatory strikes from Iran using drones and missiles[1] - The indirect negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue, scheduled for June 15 in Oman, were postponed due to the outbreak of hostilities[1] - The recent escalation reflects a decline in the U.S.'s global strategic control and coordination capabilities, particularly after the failure to mediate the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire[1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - The conflict has increased the risk of war, raising oil prices due to supply-side pressures[2] - Israel's attacks aimed to prevent the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could threaten Israel's nuclear deterrence and national security[2] - North America and the Middle East are major oil production regions, with their share increasing in recent years; however, global economic growth expectations have weakened due to trade wars, impacting oil demand[2] Group 3: Nuclear Negotiation Dynamics - The interruption of nuclear negotiations may lead to stricter conditions for any future talks, reshaping the power dynamics among the U.S., Iran, and Israel[3] - Iran's restraint in its military response indicates a desire to control the conflict's intensity while still demonstrating a strong stance[3] - The U.S. is currently providing defensive support to Israel but has not directly engaged in the conflict, which may change if Iran escalates its attacks on U.S. interests[3] Group 4: Future Scenarios - One scenario involves Iran signing a nuclear agreement under U.S. and Israeli pressure, leading to a relatively peaceful U.S. strategy to contain Iran while enhancing ties with Gulf allies[4] - Another scenario could see a significant breakthrough in Iran's nuclear capabilities, prompting the U.S. to unify Gulf states and Israel against Iran, creating a comprehensive strategic blockade[4]