美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题：豆供需报告整体中性，海内外肉牛及原奶景气有望共振-20250616

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5][10][11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a positive cycle, particularly in beef and dairy markets, with potential upward price movements in 2025 [5][8][10] - The report highlights a generally neutral outlook for soybean supply and demand, with expectations of price stability in the near term [2][28] - The overall supply of corn is tightening, leading to a forecast of moderate price increases [1][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA June report estimates a global corn production increase of 1 million tons (approximately +0.08%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.4 million tons (approximately +0.11%) [1][18] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.94% to 275.24 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.23 percentage points to 21.57% [18][19] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [21][22] Soybeans - The USDA June report indicates that global soybean production for the 25/26 season remains unchanged from May estimates, with a slight increase in total usage by 100,000 tons (approximately +0.02%) [2][28] - The final global ending stocks are projected to increase by 970,000 tons (approximately +0.78%) to 125.3 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2][29] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain stable at the bottom of the market in the first half of 2025 [30][37] Wheat - The USDA June report forecasts a global wheat production increase of 70,000 tons (approximately +0.01%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.8 million tons (approximately +0.22%) [3][45] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 2.97 million tons (approximately -1.12%) to 26.276 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.44 percentage points to 32.45% [3][45] - The wheat market is expected to remain in a loose supply-demand balance, with prices likely to stabilize at the bottom [3][45] Sugar - Short-term sugar imports are expected to increase, with market prices likely to remain weak due to ample supply [4][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Brazilian weather and sugar production progress, as well as potential geopolitical risks affecting supply [4][16] Cotton - The report indicates that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes, with a projected decrease in global production and demand [4][18] - The final stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease by 1.16 percentage points to 65.22%, indicating a loose supply-demand balance [4][18] Beef - The report predicts an upward trend in U.S. beef prices for 2026, with a significant reduction in supply expected [5][20] - Domestic beef prices are expected to remain strong despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [5][23] Dairy - The report suggests that the dairy market may experience a reversal in 2025, driven by reduced production and increased overseas consumption [8][25] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to supply constraints and reduced imports [8][27] Pork - The U.S. pork market is expected to see a slight increase in demand, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply growth [8][29] - Domestic breeding stock levels are expected to remain stable, supporting profitability in the pork sector [8][30] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is projected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand expected to improve [9][32] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are expected to weaken, allowing for a gradual recovery in supply [9][32] Eggs - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in egg supply starting in the second half of 2025, with overall supply expected to remain ample [9][36] - Domestic egg prices are projected to face downward pressure due to high supply levels [9][37]