金信期货日刊-20250617

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend, but investors should remain cautious and avoid blind chasing [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. - The gold market is expected to reach new highs, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a focus on oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14]. - The glass market should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. - The urea market is in a weak adjustment phase, and short - position holders should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Futures - On June 16, the main contract of methanol futures rose by over 4%. The increase was driven by both supply - side tightening and demand - side recovery [3]. - On the supply side, domestic coal - based methanol plants reduced production due to environmental inspections, with the operating rate dropping to 70% and production decreasing by 3% compared to last week. Imports also decreased due to tight supply in the Middle East [3]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of MTO units rose to 78%, the demand in the olefin industry recovered, and formaldehyde enterprises increased their inventory, driving up the demand for methanol [3]. - In terms of cost structure, coal prices rose by 5%, and natural gas prices increased slightly, providing strong cost support [3]. - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons shut down, and the rest operated at low loads. Iranian methanol accounts for about half of China's imports [3]. Stock Index Futures - In May, the stable and positive trend remained unchanged, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. Gold - Due to the Israeli raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it is also following the upward trend. Gold is still expected to reach new highs [12]. Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [15]. - Technically, the support level was tested again today and proved effective, so the market should be viewed as oscillating [14]. Glass - On the supply side, there has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses, and factory inventories remain high. Downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly [18]. - Technically, the market showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a short - term oscillating view is adopted, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. Urea - On the supply side, the daily domestic urea production is around 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [19]. - On the demand side, agricultural demand progress is still slow, and downstream players' participation is limited. Urea prices continue to adjust weakly. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders have made profits, and they should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19].