中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数收涨，能化板块大面积飘红-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, and the Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June. Although the economic fundamentals are still recovering, they are disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The rebound of May's CPI data falling short of expectations supports the Fed's rate cut, but the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals next week [6]. - Domestic macro: The national economy is operating steadily with progress. Fixed - asset investment continues to expand, manufacturing investment grows rapidly, service industry growth accelerates, and the year - on - year decline in commodity housing sales prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow in May [6]. - Asset views: Domestically, there are mainly structural opportunities for assets, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are on the path of recovery from the contraction in Q1. However, the recovery is limited by geopolitical and economic - trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in June due to the balance between upper - limit constraints and lower - limit support [6]. - Domestic: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Geopolitical impacts are fading, waiting for policies from the Lujiazui Forum. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility has quickly bottomed out, mainly buying options. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield curve is steepening. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: If the progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Macro sentiment is recovering, and prices are fluctuating at a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals have decreased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: Demand support is weak, and cost - driven increases are difficult to sustain. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment has improved, but supply remains loose. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations have improved, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Silicomanganese: Manganese ore supply is disrupted again, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Demand is declining in the off - season, and spot prices are being adjusted downwards. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply is at a high level, and upstream inventories are accumulating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under pressure. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: There is still a risk of a short - squeeze in the short term, and aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Inventories are slightly accumulating, and zinc prices are weakly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lead: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventories have increased significantly, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to decline, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand lack driving forces, and prices continue to fluctuate. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are intensifying, and oil price fluctuations are increasing. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - LPG: Cost support is increasing, and LPG prices are rebounding following crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Asphalt: Crude oil prices have risen and then fallen, and asphalt futures prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil prices have risen and then fallen. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iran - Israel situation, methanol prices have risen significantly. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Urea: Affected by geopolitical factors and the start of domestic and foreign demand, the futures price is strong. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Ethylene glycol: Port inventories are decreasing, and Iranian plants are shut down. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - PX: Supply - demand support is weakening, and short - term price depends on crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PTA: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it follows crude oil in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Short - fiber: Production is maintained, and weekly inventories are decreasing. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Bottle chips: Multiple plants are under maintenance, and processing fees have bottomed out. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PP: Oil prices have risen significantly, and the Middle East situation is uncertain. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Plastic: It follows oil prices in the short term. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Styrene: Crude oil prices have fallen, and styrene prices are weakly consolidating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - PVC: Dynamic costs are rising, and PVC prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Caustic soda: It has low valuation and weak supply - demand. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Macro and EPA proposals are beneficial to oils and fats. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Protein meal: Hedging pressure has arrived as expected, and the futures price is facing adjustment. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Corn/Starch: The increase in spot prices has slowed down, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pig: It is the off - season for demand, and pig prices are restricted. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Rubber: Market sentiment provides support, and the futures price is strongly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Synthetic rubber: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on sentiment still exists. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pulp: The financial market atmosphere is soft, and pulp prices are rebounding. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Cotton: The driving force is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the lower - level support. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Logs: As the delivery approaches, the game intensifies. Short - term outlook is volatile [11].