镍不锈钢早报：镍矿价格小幅反弹，底部支撑转强-20250617

Report 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] 2. Core View - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 and 127,000 yuan. The demand is still weak, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to close short positions in batches and roll short after the rebound [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News - Harita Nickel in Indonesia has put 12 production lines into operation and is fully producing ferronickel [1] Supply - In the nickel ore market, the Philippines has emerged from the rainy season, with increased arrivals in China and shipments from the Philippines. The Indonesian Sulawesi mining area has rainfall, affecting ore production and causing a rebound in nickel ore prices. Domestic ferronickel production has slightly decreased, but Indonesian ferronickel production has increased rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of over 30% and a month - on - month increase of over 10%. The total supply of domestic imports and ferronickel remains high and in surplus. The month - on - month decline in electrolytic nickel production is minimal, but the year - on - year increase is over 45%, and the total supply of imported electrolytic nickel within the month is high [1] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support provided by the downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. The early stainless steel production was high, but since May, ferronickel profits have shrunk rapidly and may face losses, which may affect stainless steel production. Overall, the demand is still weak [2] Report 2: Shanghai Zinc Morning Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [3] 2. Core View - Tariff impacts have temporarily receded. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so zinc is generally viewed bearishly [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News - In May 2025, the zinc and zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 493,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The cumulative output from January to May was 2.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. In June, most previously overhauled smelters resumed production. It is estimated that the refined zinc output in June will increase by 19,000 tons to 512,000 tons month - on - month, with a daily average increase of 7.3% [3] Supply - During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is basically maintained at about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Smelters can basically break even without considering by - products and make a profit with by - products. The overall supply is relatively loose [3] Demand - Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but capacity utilization and output are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The steel mill inventory is low, and social inventory has started to accumulate. The zinc oxide production is temporarily without positive support, and there are signs of further contraction. The die - casting alloy start - up rate has exceeded the same period last year, but the downstream start - up rate is expected to weaken. In general, the short - term zinc demand side is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4]