综合晨报:伊以冲突进入模糊阶段,中国5月经济数据表现分化-20250617
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-17 01:27
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a vague stage, with the market's risk aversion sentiment cooling in the short - term, and the US dollar index weakening. The price of gold has returned below the $3400 mark, lacking the momentum to break through and rise [1][13][17]. - China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance. Although consumption growth exceeded expectations, the downward trend in the real estate sector offset the positive impact of consumption to some extent. The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but it is difficult for fundamental news to drive the bond market to strengthen further [2][24][27]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy changes. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by factors such as the growth of US soybeans and the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans; the price of crude oil fluctuates greatly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East [3][5][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel and resume negotiations on its nuclear program. The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds. Japan has not reached an overall agreement with the US on tariffs. The price of gold has fallen by more than 1%, and it lacks the momentum to break through and rise in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and be aware of the risk of price corrections [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the UK signed a trade agreement, and the US will postpone sanctions against Russia. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a vague stage, the market's risk aversion sentiment has cooled in the short - term, and the US dollar index has weakened. It is recommended that the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The New York Fed's manufacturing index in June showed a greater - than - expected contraction. Iran has sent signals for dialogue, but the geopolitical risk has not been completely eliminated. The risk of a correction in the US stock market is still relatively large [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Goldman Sachs is bullish on the performance of Chinese private enterprises. China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance, and it is recommended to allocate individual stock indexes evenly [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. China's economic data in May showed a mixed performance, and the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market. It is recommended to layout medium - term long positions on dips [26][27][28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased, the NOPA's May soybean crushing volume was the highest in the same period in history but lower than expected, and the excellent - good rate of US soybeans has decreased by 2%. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the demand for soybean meal is strong. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate, and the basis is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29][30][32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 15 decreased by 4% month - on - month, and the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China has increased. The price of the oil market is supported by the demand for US biodiesel. It is not recommended to short, and short - term long - buying opportunities can be continued to be关注 [33][34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is running firmly at a high level. The cost of raw materials supports the price of corn starch, and it is recommended to wait and see [35][36][37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn has risen slightly. The supply of imported corn may increase, and the substitution of wheat is limited. The 09 contract of corn is expected to oscillate first strongly and then weakly. It is not recommended to short or long the 09 contract, and opportunities to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies can be关注 when the new - season yield is more clear [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is running weakly. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed qualitatively. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about chasing long positions [38][39]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's crude steel production in May was 86.55 million tons. The demand for real estate has not changed significantly, and the demand for infrastructure and manufacturing has also changed little. The steel price is supported by energy prices, but the rebound space is limited. It is recommended that the steel price will oscillate in the short term, and the spot end should be treated with a rally - hedging strategy [4][40][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The market is pessimistic about the future trend of silicon wafer prices. The production of polysilicon in June is expected to maintain at 960,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies, and pay attention to the production - reduction actions of leading enterprises [45][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The transaction center of organic silicon DMC has moved down. The supply of industrial silicon may increase, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly on rallies [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - LME copper inventory has fallen to a new low in more than a year. Iran is seeking dialogue, and the risk of geopolitical war has decreased. The domestic copper inventory is still at a low level, and the supply of deliverable goods is tight. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [49][52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import management of lithium - ion battery and recycled steel raw materials has been standardized. A US energy storage integrator has applied for bankruptcy. The downstream receiving willingness is insufficient after the rebound, and the basis has weakened. It is recommended not to short at the current point, and it is advisable to short on rallies [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - An Australian silver - zinc mine has achieved commercial production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies, wait and see for spreads, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign arbitrage in the medium term [59][60][62]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The conflict between Iran and Israel has pushed up freight rates. The impact of the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field on LPG production is limited. It is recommended to关注 reverse - spread trading opportunities [63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's production in May increased by 180,000 barrels per day month - on - month. The price of oil fluctuates greatly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to note that geopolitical conflicts will cause increased volatility [65][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation atmosphere is fair. The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand has decreased. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and it is advisable to short after the geopolitical situation eases [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The supply of pure benzene and styrene is gradually returning, and the demand is expected to be average in the far - month. It is recommended to note that the absolute price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disturbances [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The international market has high internal - external price differences, and the spot sentiment has improved. It is recommended to关注 the export situation and policy relaxation [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased. The supply of asphalt is expected to be continuously restricted, and the price of asphalt is expected to oscillate upwards [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly increasing. The bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to关注 opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and non - aluminum downstream demand is poor. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to decline again. It is recommended that the 09 contract has limited downward space due to large discounts [79][80][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is consolidating at a low level. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has decreased. The fundamentals of PVC have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [84]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The domestic soda - ash market is oscillating downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei has remained stable. As the high - temperature and rainy season approaches, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply will remain stable. The spot price has room to decline, and the short - term rebound is difficult to sustain [87].