沥青：跟随原油高位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: BU2507 closed at 3,659 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.95%, and 3,657 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.05%; BU2508 closed at 3,649 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 2.99%, and 3,639 yuan/ton in the overnight session with a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume of BU2507 yesterday was 93,031 lots, an increase of 40,364 lots, and the open interest was 53,840 lots, a decrease of 6,572 lots; the trading volume of BU2508 yesterday was 27,945 lots, an increase of 15,303 lots, and the open interest was 27,352 lots, a decrease of 1,705 lots [1] - Spot Market: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong was 3,775 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta was 3,670 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 34.49% (updated on June 9), an increase of 0.95% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 30.29% (updated on June 9), a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous period [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 116 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 10 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the East China - South China spread was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Production: This week (20250610 - 20250616), the domestic weekly asphalt production was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 1.8%; an increase of 147,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 38%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.3975 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 5.6% [11] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 782,000 tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to June 12. The domestic refinery inventory decreased significantly, mainly in Shandong and East China. As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.854 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared to June 12. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the overall recovery of downstream terminal project demand in the northern region [11] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [10]