烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pattern of high profit and high production will always influence caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy and the main logic. However, the current main - contract price is at a discount of nearly 20% to the spot price, so the short - term further downward space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half of the year, focus on stockpiling in the alumina and export directions, and the stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to a shortage situation, but the caustic soda inventory is in a state of accumulation this week [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, which will make it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. In the context of weak demand expectations, the logic of shorting profit cannot be falsified. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream stockpiling, and there is still seasonal demand support, so one can participate in positive spreads at the right time, with the core being to focus on the downstream stockpiling rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On June 17, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2,276 yuan, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 850 yuan, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price was 2,656 yuan, and the basis was 380 yuan [1]. - Since June 17, the procurement price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 800 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The high - profit and high - production pattern affects caustic soda. Shorting profit is the main logic, but the large futures discount limits short - term decline. There is room for rebound during seasonal peak seasons. In the second half of the year, focus on stockpiling in specific sectors. The futures will make up the discount and then face pressure. One can participate in positive spreads by focusing on downstream stockpiling [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4].