宝城期货甲醇早报-20250617

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is weakening, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is a weakening trend. The main reason is that the geopolitical factors have weakened, and the previous gains of methanol have been reversed. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Methanol Market Situation - After the missile exchanges between Iran and Israel over the weekend, Iran took the initiative to ease the tense relationship, and the market's concerns about the conflict may cool down, leading to a weakening of geopolitical factors [5]. - Iran is an important methanol producer and exporter globally, with an annual methanol production capacity of over 20 million tons, accounting for about 15% of the global total capacity, and an annual export volume of about 8 million tons. More than half of China's 13.5 million tons of imported methanol in 2024 came from Iran [5]. - Currently, 4 sets of methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons have been confirmed to be shut down, and the operating load of the remaining plants is low [5]. - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract declined slightly by 1.19% to 2417 yuan/ton [5].