白糖：开启反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that sugar has started a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Data: The raw sugar price is 17.02 cents per pound with a year - on - year increase of 0.48; the mainstream spot price is 6060 yuan per ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5667 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 3 [1]. - Spread Data: The 91 spread is 128 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 3; the 15 spread is 40 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 3 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency Information: Crude oil prices have risen significantly; the MIX in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly year - on - year; the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season; Brazil exported 2.25 million tons in May, a 20% year - on - year decrease; as of May 15, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 sugar season; China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April have decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - Actual Production and Sales Data: As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 8.11 million tons of sugar (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7%; as of the end of April, China imported 1.74 million tons of sugar (-1.38 million tons) [2]. 3.4 International Market - Supply Shortage Forecast: ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - Production Data: As of June 1 in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 12 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 6.95 million tons (-0.92 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; as of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons); as of April 9 in the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.05 million tons of sugar (+1.31 million tons) [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook [4].