生猪：仍需等待现货印证

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Still Waiting for Spot Market Confirmation" and was published on June 17, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - Analysts include Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0001891, Email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0018592, Email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [2] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: Henan spot price is 14,280 yuan/ton (year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton), Sichuan spot price is 14,000 yuan/ton (yoy + 200 yuan/ton), and Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton (yoy + 600 yuan/ton) [3] - Futures Prices: Pig 2507 is 13,295 yuan/ton (yoy + 75 yuan/ton), Pig 2509 is 13,790 yuan/ton (yoy + 40 yuan/ton), and Pig 2511 is 13,410 yuan/ton (yoy + 20 yuan/ton) [3] - Trading Volumes and Open Interests: Pig 2507 trading volume is 4,679 lots (up 1,423 from the previous day), open interest is 9,114 lots (down 2,348 from the previous day); Pig 2509 trading volume is 35,289 lots (down 4,794), open interest is 78,006 lots (down 1,458); Pig 2511 trading volume is 6,439 lots (up 1,147), open interest is 39,853 lots (up 15) [3] - Price Spreads: Pig 2507 basis is 985 yuan/ton (yoy + 125 yuan/ton), Pig 2509 basis is 490 yuan/ton (yoy + 160 yuan/ton), Pig 2511 basis is 870 yuan/ton (yoy + 180 yuan/ton); Pig 7 - 9 spread is - 495 yuan/ton (yoy + 35 yuan/ton), Pig 9 - 11 spread is 380 yuan/ton (yoy + 20 yuan/ton) [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. It indicates a neutral view [4] Group 5: Market Logic - The current futures market has entered the expectation - trading stage. The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has led to the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the long - position trading of the expectation that prices will bottom out and rise in July has driven the strong performance of the 09 contract [5] - The impact path of this policy on inventory reduction has become more complex, and factors such as weight reduction, spot - price reaction, and small - farmer hoarding need to be considered [5] - In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics and persistence, and an inverse - spread expectation is maintained. However, in the short - term, attention should be paid to capital sentiment and stop - loss and take - profit operations [5] - The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]