棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好豆油：豆棕价差短期回归受阻豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Both US biofuel policies and geopolitical risks are favorable [2][4] - Soybean oil: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures fluctuated [2][11] - Soybean: The announcement of the soybean reserve auction in Heilongjiang Province led to an adjustment and fluctuation in the futures market [2][11] - Corn: The market is oscillating with a slight upward trend [2][14] - Sugar: The market has started to rebound [2][20] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][24] - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is gradually accelerating [2][30] - Pigs: It is still necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the lower price level [2][37] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental Data - Palm oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day session increased by 3.64%, and 0.05% during the night session. Trading volume was 1,374,614 lots, an increase of 449,020 lots, and open interest was 485,717 lots, an increase of 72,144 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,790 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton [4] - Soybean oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day session increased by 2.23%, and decreased by 0.10% during the night session. Trading volume was 697,940 lots, an increase of 205,708 lots, and open interest was 555,830 lots, an increase of 6,543 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,230 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Industry News - From June 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, with a 3.85% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.03% decrease in oil extraction rate. Exports increased by 17.77% (AmSpec) or 14.3% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. Starting from July 1, the Malaysian oleochemical industry may face increased input costs due to a 5% sales tax on palm kernel oil [5][7] - As of June 15, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The planting rate was 93%, lower than the expected 95%. The emergence rate was 84% [7] - As of June 12, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 215,803 tons, in line with expectations. The NOPA reported that in May 2025, US member units crushed 1.92829 billion bushels of soybeans, a 1.4% increase from April and a 5% increase from May 2024. The daily average soybean crushing volume in May decreased to 6.22 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory at the end of May was 1.373 billion pounds, a 10.1% decrease from the end of April [8][9] - Trend Intensity - Palm oil: 1; Soybean oil: 1 [10] 3.2 Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data - Soybean: The closing price of DCE soybean 2509 during the day session was 4,242 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (+0.57%), and 4,225 yuan/ton during the night session, down 21 yuan (-0.49%) [11] - Soybean meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 during the day session was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan (-0.10%), and 3,042 yuan/ton during the night session, up 3 yuan (+0.10%) [11] - Macro and Industry News - On June 16, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher. The strong demand outlook for soybean oil provided support, but the good weather in the US soybean - growing area limited the upward momentum. The USDA's crop report showed that as of June 15, the US soybean planting rate was 93%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 66% [11][13] - On June 19, 2025, there will be a bidding and sales fair for 60,790.15 tons of provincial - reserve soybeans in Heilongjiang [13] - Trend Intensity - Soybean meal: 0; Soybean: - 1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the report day) [13] 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The purchase price in Northeast China was unchanged, the price at Jinzhou for shipment was 2,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in North China was unchanged, and the price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - Futures: The closing price of C2507 during the day session was 2,359 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, and 2,358 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.04%. The closing price of C2509 during the day session was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and 2,392 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.04% [15] - Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection price at ports increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton, the price in Guangdong Shekou remained unchanged, the price in Northeast China's enterprises increased steadily, and the price in North China increased [16] - Trend Intensity - Corn: 0 [17] 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 17.02 cents/pound, up 0.48 cents. The mainstream spot price was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main - contract price was 5,667 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [20] - Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information: Crude oil prices soared; the MIX in Brazil's central - southern region increased significantly year - on - year; the USDA predicted a 4.73% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season; Brazil's sugar exports in May decreased by 20% year - on - year; as of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [20] - Domestic market: The CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.15 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.16 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 8.11 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of April, China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons [21] - International market: The ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of June 1, Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 6.95 million tons, a decrease of 920,000 tons year - on - year [22] - Trend Intensity - Sugar: 1 [23] 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of CF2509 during the day session was 13,530 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, and 13,490 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.30%. The closing price of CY2509 during the day session was 19,765 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and 19,735 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.15% [24] - Spot: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,766 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [24] - Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot: The trading volume of cotton spot remained largely unchanged, mostly sluggish, and the sales basis was firm. The pre - sale of new cotton in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season has begun [25] - Domestic cotton textile enterprises: The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish, with insufficient orders. The demand for pure - cotton grey cloth was weak, and fabric mills continued to reduce production [25] - US cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to rise slightly. As of June 15, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 48%, and the planting progress was 85% [25] - Trend Intensity - Cotton: 0 [27] 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,894 yuan/500 kg, up 2.48%, and the trading volume decreased by 15,619 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,644 lots. The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,669 yuan/500 kg, up 0.47%, and the trading volume decreased by 6,274 lots, and open interest increased by 1 lot [29] - Spot: The price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, in Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, in Shanxi was 2.70 yuan/jin, and in Hubei was 2.89 yuan/jin [29] - Trend Intensity - Eggs: 0 [29] 3.7 Pigs - Fundamental Data - Spot: The price in Henan was 14,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Sichuan was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Guangdong was 15,640 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [33] - Futures: The price of live - hog 2507 was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; live - hog 2509 was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; live - hog 2511 was 13,410 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [33] - Market Logic - The futures market has entered the expected - trading stage. The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has driven the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the long - position trading of the expectation of a price bottoming - out and rising in July has driven the strong operation of the 09 contract. However, the impact of the policy on inventory reduction is more complex. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics, and the market structure maintains the expectation of a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35] - Trend Intensity - Pigs: 0 [34] 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Data - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts was 9,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts was 9,460 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [38] - Futures: The closing price of PK510 was 8,296 yuan/ton, up 1.02%, and the trading volume was 62,837 lots, an increase of 14,797 lots, and open interest was 122,573 lots, a decrease of 5,104 lots. The closing price of PK511 was 8,098 yuan/ton, up 1.02%, and the trading volume was 17,55 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots, and open interest was 60,225 lots, a decrease of 8 lots [38] - Spot Market Focus - In most regions, the raw material supply at the grass - roots level is limited, and most transactions are based on inventory. The inquiry and purchase volume has improved compared to a few days ago. Most regions' prices are stable, and some regions' prices are slightly stronger [39] - Trend Intensity - Peanuts: 0 [40]