集运指数（欧线）：08震荡走势，10空单持有

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The EC2506 contract's final delivery settlement price may be close to 1900 points due to shipping schedule delays and container rejections in June. The EC2508 contract is characterized by strong current conditions but weak expectations. It is recommended to approach it with a volatile mindset (1900 - 2300 points). The strategy is to hold short positions for the 10 contract [12][14]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2506 closed at 1,934.3 with a -1.06% daily change, EC2508 at 2,030.0 (-4.04%), and EC2510 at 1,414.7 (-3.22%). The trading volume and open interest also varied, with EC2508 having the highest trading volume of 65,871 and EC2506 having the highest open interest of 5,204 [1]. - Freight Index: On June 16, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 1,697.63 points (weekly increase of 4.6%), and the US - West route was 2,908.68 points (weekly increase of 33.1%). The SCFI European route was $1,844/TEU (bi - weekly increase of 10.6%), and the US - West route was $4,120/FEU (bi - weekly decrease of 26.5%) [1]. - Spot Freight: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Antwerp routes varied, with prices ranging from $1,700 - $3,610 for 40'GP and $1,717 - $2,555 for 20'GP [1]. - Exchange Rate: The US dollar index was 98.15, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - Weekly Shipping Capacity: There are two scenarios for China - Europe base weekly shipping capacity, with or without considering pending voyages. The data shows fluctuations in shipping capacity contributed by different alliances and carriers over different time periods [5][11]. - Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity: Similar to the weekly data, there are two scenarios for monthly average weekly shipping capacity. The shipping capacity shows differences between 2024 and 2025 and varies by month [8][10]. - June - August Shipping Schedule: The shipping schedules of various alliances and carriers from June to August 2025 are provided, excluding pending voyages [6]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Geopolitical News: Iran hopes to ease hostilities with Israel, and Trump's actions regarding trade agreements and the call for evacuation from Tehran are reported, which may have an impact on market sentiment [12][15]. - Market Performance: The container shipping index was weakly volatile. The main 2508 contract closed at 2030 points (down 4%), and the secondary main 2510 contract closed at 1414.7 points (down 3%). The previous week's speculation on the impact of Middle - East geopolitical tensions on the European route had limited actual effects [12]. - SCFIS Index Forecast: The SCFIS index on June 16 was lower than expected. It is expected to be around 1980 points on June 23 and may rebound to 2000 - 2050 points on June 30. The 2506 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be close to 1900 points [12]. - Shipping Company's Price Announcement: CMA CGM announced price increases for early July, with a proposed price of $2250/TEU and $4100/FEU [12]. - Market Fundamentals: Since mid - June, with the increase in FAK prices, long - term contracts or index - linked contracts have become more attractive. Some shipowners are offering special prices at the end of June to build up the rejection rate. The weekly average shipping capacity in July is 30.6 million TEU (excluding CMA CGM's pending voyages in week 30). In August, if pending voyages are not considered, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.8 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31.3 million TEU [13]. - US Route Freight: US - West freight rates will continue to decline in late June, with a further increase in the decline rate. It is expected that the mainstream shipping companies' US - West quotes will fall below $3000/FEU. The US - East freight rate decline is relatively small, and it may fall to around $5500/FEU in the short term. Although there is an obvious increase in FOB bookings in the first and second weeks of July in the US - East, the pressure to stop the decline in freight rates is still high [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].