国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and believes that most of them will experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. - Iron ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it will trade in a range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: Affected by macro - sentiment, they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Resonating with the sector sentiment, they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: With stricter safety inspections, they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][16]. - Thermal coal: Demand needs to be released, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][20]. - Logs: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures closed at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 0.21%. The open interest decreased by 10,148 to 685,492 lots. Among spot prices, domestic ore prices in some regions decreased, such as the price of Buna (66%) dropping 7 yuan to 872 yuan/ton. Some basis and spreads also changed slightly [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [4][29]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamental Data: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,990 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.98%, with an open interest increase of 29,071 lots. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,104 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan or 1.07%, with an open interest decrease of 26,852 lots. Spot prices in some regions increased, and basis and spreads also changed [8]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year. In May, PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year, and the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. For example, ferrosilicon 2507 closed at 5394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also changed. For instance, the spot - 07 futures spread of ferrosilicon decreased by 84 yuan to - 344 yuan/ton [13][14]. - Macro and Industry News: On June 16, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported, and a steel mill in Jiangsu finalized the procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 1, indicating a slightly strong trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 795.5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 2.71%. Coke J2509 closed at 1371 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan or 1.59%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spreads also fluctuated [16]. - Price and Position Information: Northern port coking coal quotes are provided, and on June 16, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of coking coal JM2509 increased by 13,773 lots, and the short positions increased by 17,967 lots; the long positions of coke J2509 decreased by 1008 lots, and the short positions decreased by 479 lots [16]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Thermal Coal - Fundamental Data: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with the previous opening price at 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest at 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest at 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price. - Price and Position Information: Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes are provided. On June 16, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 lots [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23]. Logs - Macro and Industry News: From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [29]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [29].