LPG：地缘不确定性增加，盘面支撑走弱

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, highlighting increased geopolitical uncertainties and weakening support for the market. It presents various LPG - related data including futures prices, spreads, and industry chain price data, as well as market news such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [1]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Fundamental Data - Futures Prices and Changes: PG2507 closed at 4,398 with a daily increase of 1.29% and a night - session close of 4,342 with a decrease of 1.27%. PG2508 closed at 4,319 with a daily increase of 1.60% and a night - session close of 4,258 with a decrease of 1.41% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: PG2507's trading volume was 113,213, a decrease of 61,336 compared to the previous day, and open interest was 41,489, a decrease of 667. PG2508's trading volume was 49,484, a decrease of 30,897, and open interest was 50,284, a decrease of 339 [1]. - Spreads: The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the 07 contract was 332 (previous day: 378), and the spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the 07 contract was 402 this week (previous week: 458) [1]. - Industry Chain Price Data: PDH operating rate was 64.3% (previous: 63.0%), MTBE operating rate was 59.7% (previous: 54.7%), and alkylation operating rate was 47.5% (previous: 48.3%) [1]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. Market News - Saudi CP Expectations: On June 13, 2025, the expected price of propane for July Saudi CP was 592 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 562 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton. For August, the expected price of propane was 579 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 549 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton [8]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting as early as 2023 and some ending at various times in 2025 or with undetermined end - dates [7]. - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many LPG factories across different regions in China have maintenance plans with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start and end times, and durations [9].