甲醇日评：中东局势变动较快，甲醇波动加剧-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in the Middle East is complex and changing rapidly. The uncertainty brings significant risks, so short - term investors are advised to take a wait - and - see approach (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Futures Prices: On June 16, 2025, compared with June 13, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2464 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.69%; MA01 in Shandong was 2587.5 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton or 4.23%; MA05 was 2395 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.83%; MA09 was 2464 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 3.14% [1] - Spot Prices: In Guangdong, it was 2490 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 3.32%; in Shaanxi, it was 2100 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 3.70%; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 2.22%; in Hubei and Inner Mongolia, there was no change [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 123.5 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit - Cost: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged. For example, Ordos Q5500 coal was 422.5 yuan/ton, and the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter [1] - Profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 359.7 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 570 yuan/ton, unchanged. Northwest MTO profit was 500.4 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 13.62%; East China MTO profit was - 1173.57 yuan/ton, down 261 yuan/ton or - 28.60%. Downstream profits: acetic acid profit was 358.97 yuan/ton, down 43.25 yuan/ton or - 10.75%; MTBE profit was 126.36 yuan/ton, down 227.2 yuan/ton or - 64.26%; formaldehyde profit was - 205.2 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 4.65%; dimethyl ether profit was 714 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.3 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, opening at 2400 yuan/ton, closing at 2464 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2593632 lots and an open interest of 820104, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA first rose and then fell, closing at 2417 at night. Relevant news last night indicated that Iran was preparing to abandon uranium enrichment for negotiations, causing oil prices to fall from high levels and methanol to decline synchronously. However, this morning, Arab media denied the news, and Trump called on people to leave Tehran again, causing oil prices to rise again in the short term. Due to the complex and rapidly changing Middle East situation, short - term wait - and - see is recommended [1]