铅锌日评：沪铅宽幅整理，沪锌反弹空间有限-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on zinc [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start - up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro - uncertainty factors [1] - For zinc, although the recent macro sentiment has warmed up, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and the short - allocation view is still maintained [1] Summary by Related Content Lead Market - Price and Market Data: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,980 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.56% to 30,240 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.55% to 42,057 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 263,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.88% to 45,503 tons [1] - Supply: In Q1 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was about 588,000 mt, down 1.8% year - on - year and 6.1% quarter - on - quarter. Australia and North America contributed the most to the decline. It is expected that overseas lead concentrate production will slightly recover in Q2 [1] - Inventory: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from June 9 and 1,600 tons from June 12 [1] - Fundamentals: Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost - price inversions, resulting in reduced production and increased finished product inventory. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [1] Zinc Market - Price and Market Data: On June 17, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 14.17% to 163,962 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.60% to 116,264 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 130,225 tons, while the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11.08% to 9,966 tons [1] - Supply News: On June 16, Australian mining company Polymetals Resources Ltd announced that its Endeavor silver - zinc mine in the Cobar region of New South Wales had achieved commercial production. It is expected to produce about 20,000 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025 [1] - Inventory: As of June 16, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from June 9 and an increase of 1,000 tons from June 12 [1] - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply shortage of zinc concentrate has improved, and the production limit on smelters has weakened. The demand side is in the off - season, but downstream procurement has improved after the zinc price decline. However, the zinc price rebound space is limited due to supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations [1]