PX&PTA&PR早评-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing an unfavorable demand situation and generally follows cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On June 16, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 1.66% and 1.35% respectively; the spot price of naphtha increased by 0.59%; the spot price of xylene decreased by 1.88%; the CFR price of PX in China's main port increased by 1.43% [1] - PTA Futures and Spot Prices: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts showed mixed trends; the domestic spot price of PTA decreased by 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of PTA's inner and outer markets showed different changes, with the outer market increasing by 4.03%; the near - far month spread increased by 132 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - PX Futures and Spot Prices: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts were mostly flat; the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged; the spot prices of PX in CFR Taiwan and FOB South Korea increased; the PXN spread increased by 3.66%; the PX - MX spread increased by 23.94%; the basis increased by 22 yuan/ton [1] - PR Futures and Spot Prices: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts increased slightly; the market prices of polyester bottle chips in the East and South China markets showed different trends; the basis in the East China market increased by 22 yuan/ton, while that in the South China market decreased by 38 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Product Prices: On June 16, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips all increased to varying degrees [2] Operating Conditions - On June 16, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged; the load rates of PTA factories, bottle - chip factories decreased, while the load rate of polyester factories increased slightly, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On June 16, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips all decreased significantly [1] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2] Important News - International Crude Oil: After Iran's missile counter - attack over the weekend, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East suddenly increased, causing oil prices to rise sharply. However, as Iran sought to restart nuclear negotiations, oil prices fell on Monday. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the weak demand cannot be ignored [2] - PX: In the case of acceptable processing profits, some PX devices increased their loads, and some postponed maintenance plans, increasing the overall supply capacity. In the medium - term, PX will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. The tense situation in the Middle East has driven the oil market to be strong, and with subsequent Asian device maintenance plans, the supply - demand tight - balance expectation continues [2] - PTA: The PTA market declined slightly due to the planned joint production cut of downstream polyester bottle - chip manufacturers, which weakened the impact of a PTA device's production cut in East China. The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the planned restart capacity this week is more than the planned maintenance capacity, so the PTA supply will increase this month. Although most polyester products are theoretically in production losses, the announced polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the rigid demand is expected to be stable. The domestic weaving market continued to decline in June, with a small number of US orders emerging. The terminal inventory pressure is large, and the operating rate of weaving factories is expected to decline [2] - Polyester Bottle Chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased by 5 yuan/ton. The polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations of bottle chips were mixed, and the downstream terminal demand was mainly small rigid orders. Some mainstream factories on the supply side announced maintenance plans, and the operating rate is expected to decline, while the market supply is currently sufficient [2] Trading Strategy - PTA rose and then fell, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4766 yuan/ton (-0.42%) and an intraday trading volume of 1.5 million lots; PX was greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6758 yuan/ton (-0.21%) and an intraday trading volume of 342,900 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5980 yuan/ton (0.17%) and an intraday trading volume of 61,000 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, international oil prices first rose sharply and then fell by 5%, but the decline narrowed at the close [2]