贵金属日报：地缘冲突短期主导金价-20250617

Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily: Geopolitical Conflicts Dominate Gold Prices in the Short Term [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of gold prices is mainly influenced by the fluctuations in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and investors are advised to closely monitor the development of the situation [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may be bullish. In the short - term, investors should pay attention to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting on inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects [5] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - On Monday, the precious metals market saw gold prices decline and silver prices remain stable. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3404.3 per ounce, down 1.4%; the SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 792.3 yuan per gram, down 0.08%. The SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8858 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45%; the COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $36.37 per ounce, up 0.04% [2] Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0% [3] - Long - term funds: The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.44 tons to 941.93 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 39.58 tons to 14714.94 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.1 tons to 1194.3 tons per day; as of the week ending June 6, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 28.2 tons to 1319.3 tons per week [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, the overall data this week is light. Pay appropriate attention to the US retail sales data on Tuesday evening, and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday [4] - In terms of events, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday; at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; at 02:03, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; at 19:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision [4] Nanhua's Viewpoint - In the short - term, London gold is expected to fluctuate strongly, with resistance moving up to $3450 and strong resistance in the $3500 area; support is at $3400, and strong support is in the $3300 area. London silver adjusted in a range last week, but there is also strong buying below. The short - term support is at $36 and $35.5, and the strong support is in the $34.8 - $35 area. The upside space has opened up to the $40 area, and there is even a possibility of reaching $45. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [5] Price and Inventory Data - The report provides price data for various gold and silver contracts, including SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, etc., as well as inventory and position data for gold and silver, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, and ETF holdings [6][15][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data on the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]