煤焦早报：经济数据偏弱，政策预期再起，煤焦震荡走强-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weak Bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and concerns about crude oil supply have led to a significant increase in international oil prices. Coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits from the rising energy costs. However, the long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear due to the potential drag on global economic recovery. In China, the May social financing performance remains weak, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises, and only government bond financing provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down, while the social retail growth rate has increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting price levels. The State Council executive meeting has proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also rumors that the crude steel production limit is about 30 million tons, less than the previously expected 50 million tons. Overall, the May economic data is weak, but the market reaction after the data release on the 16th was positive, with the real estate sector rising significantly [5]. - For coking coal, the production of mines and coal washing plants has been significantly reduced, but the inventory in mines and coal washing plants is still rising, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The reduction in supply has not effectively affected the inventory. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost has reached a low level, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, the blast furnace profit is maintained at around 100, the molten iron output is stable, and the supply - demand of coke has marginally improved [6]. - The probability of further expansion of the Israel - Iran conflict is limited. The night - session decline in crude oil prices has led to a weakening of coking coal. Unless crude oil price fluctuations increase again, coking coal will return to its own logic. In extreme market conditions, capital game dominates. Since the recent rebound, the net position of the top 20 in coking coal has significantly converged, but the total position has not significantly decreased, indicating that the battle between long and short positions is not over. It is recommended to hold a small - position long order of J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 795.5 yuan/ton (+21), the basis is 102.5 yuan/ton (-21), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-1.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production continues to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has been adjusted downward. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 57.36% (-3.23), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.8604 million tons (+53,100 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.5147 million tons (+64,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.7398 million tons (+30,700 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 6.6953 million tons (-210,000 tons), and the port inventory is 3.1202 million tons (-10,000 tons) [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1371 yuan/ton (+21.5), the basis is - 5 yuan/ton (-21.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (-4.5) [4]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average molten iron output is 2.4161 million tons (-19,000 tons) [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction, and downstream inventory continues to decrease. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 87,310 tons (-1,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 642,840 tons (-2,960 tons), and the port inventory is 203,090 tons (-11,060 tons) [4]