中辉有色观点-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a strong oscillation. The short - term uncertainty remains high, and it has high strategic allocation value in the long run [1]. - Silver is predicted to have a high - level oscillation, following the characteristics of gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is likely to continue to rebound and oscillate upward, and is still favored in the medium and long term [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound, but overall it is still weak. There is an opportunity to short at high prices in the long run [1]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure due to cost support and inventory accumulation [1]. - Tin's price is under pressure after a continuous rebound because of slow复产 and weak smelter start - up [1]. - Aluminum's price is under pressure with weakening overseas disturbances and emerging downstream consumption off - season characteristics [1]. - Nickel's price is weak due to rising overseas shipments and high domestic inventory [1]. - Industrial silicon's price is bearish because of increasing supply and weak downstream demand [1]. - Lithium carbonate's price is bearish due to continuous supply surplus pressure and increasing inventory [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold opened high and closed low as the short - term risk - aversion sentiment declined due to Iran's softening stance [2]. - Basic Logic: Iran hopes to end the hostile state, US data is weak, and the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider making long - term preparations for gold. Control the position of silver due to its high elasticity [3]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper continued to rebound [4]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, domestic production is increasing, there are concerns about overseas soft squeeze - out risks, and green copper demand offsets traditional demand shortages [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short - term long positions. Be cautious about risks. Long - term optimism about copper remains [5]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc rebounded in a V - shape and stopped falling to stabilize [7]. - Industrial Logic: Zinc ore supply is loosening, domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. Look for opportunities to short at high prices in the long term [8]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and alumina was under pressure [9]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost is decreasing, inventory is changing, and demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, the supply is in surplus [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices were weak, and stainless steel was under pressure [11]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas nickel ore supply is increasing, domestic supply is in surplus, and stainless steel inventory is rising [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 increased positions and declined [13]. - Industrial Logic: The supply surplus pressure of lithium carbonate remains, and the inventory is expected to increase further [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [14].