新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅产量库存小幅增长，基本面扔偏弱-20250617

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [1][3] - For polysilicon, the futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term due to improved commodity sentiment and more capital games [4][6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The 2507 main contract opened at 7305 yuan/ton and closed at 7370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The 2505 main contract held 323363 positions at the close, and on June 17, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56823, a decrease of 1097 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 57.2 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. Among them, the general social warehouse was 13.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse was 43.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 10400 - 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market's transaction center continued to decline, and the mainstream transaction price was about 10700 yuan/ton. The lowest transaction price in Shandong was below 10500 yuan/ton. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer enterprises was expected to approach 70%, and the DMC transaction center was expected to decline slightly [2] Strategy - The industrial silicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals changed little, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. The strategy was to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises could sell hedging at high prices [3] Group 4: Polysilicon Summary Market Analysis - On June 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures 2507 main contract oscillated. It opened at 33765 yuan/ton and closed at 34320 yuan/ton, a 1.93% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 51277 positions, and the trading volume was 62835 [4] - The polysilicon spot price was stable. The re - feeding material was priced at 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon factory inventory increased slightly, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50, a 2.23% change, silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW, a - 3.40% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 23800.00 tons, an 8.00% change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.10GW, a 0.40% change [4][5] - In terms of silicon wafers, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.06 yuan/piece [5] - In terms of battery cells, the high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5] Strategy - The polysilicon futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The fundamentals were weak, and the market might maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term. The strategy was neutral [6]