油脂日报：国际冲突加剧，油脂震荡偏强-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - Macro - level: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - Supply - demand level: - Soybean oil: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - Palm oil: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - Rapeseed oil: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]