Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - In May 2025, the overall economy stabilized. Industrial production maintained steady growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.3% year-on-year. However, Sino-US tariff friction pressured downstream and midstream enterprises. The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the CPI slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. Investment growth slowed marginally, while consumption rebounded, and the real estate sector remained under pressure [3][4]. - Domestic demand showed resilience, but external uncertainties increased. The overall domestic demand in May demonstrated resilience, with consumption reaching a new high for the year. High-end manufacturing led industrial upgrading, and the optimization of the foreign trade structure hedged external risks. However, global differentiation intensified, and the impact of the Israel-Palestine war on upstream raw materials needed further attention [5]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Growth - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 61.2%. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries maintaining rapid growth. However, Sino-US tariff conflicts affected the growth of private, foreign, and state-owned enterprises [10][11]. Inflation: Continued Pressure - In May 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, mainly due to increased international input pressure and loose supply and demand of energy and raw materials. The CPI slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with significant structural differentiation. Energy and food prices declined, while service prices increased. Future risks included international commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical risks [22][45]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to May 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. Manufacturing investment maintained rapid growth, especially in high - tech fields. Infrastructure investment growth slowed, and private investment excluding real estate showed vitality in the service industry [60]. Production: Intensified Differentiation - From January to May 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with significant industry differentiation. High - tech industries such as the automobile and computer equipment manufacturing industries had high capacity utilization rates, while the upstream raw material industry was weak, and exports were under pressure [65]. Consumption: Policy Effectiveness - In May 2025, the consumer market rebounded strongly, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4132.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The "trade - in" policy was effective, and service consumption and new consumption became new drivers. However, consumer confidence needed to be strengthened [78]. Real Estate: Weak and Differentiated - The real estate market continued its weak recovery and deep differentiation. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72. Real estate investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the sales side showed regional differentiation and year-on-year improvement. Policy - driven market structure optimization was underway, but real estate enterprises still faced financial pressure [89]. Appendix - In May 2025, the national economy ran smoothly under pressure, with stable growth in production and demand, stable employment, and the growth of new drivers. Industrial production, service industry growth, market sales, fixed - asset investment, foreign trade, employment, and consumer prices all showed certain characteristics [112].
中国2025年5月经济数据图景:投资边际放缓,地产持续承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-17 02:31