美债策略周报-20250617

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market experienced a "V" shaped reversal in yields due to rising oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining by a total of 10.7 basis points during the week [3][10][74] - The May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while core CPI and PPI data were below expectations, indicating limited inflationary pressure from tariffs [4][54][75] - The report forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will fluctuate between 4.2% and 4.6% in the coming months, with a high allocation value at the 4.5% yield level, corresponding to a price of 110 [4][74][76] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining a net financing scale of $514 billion for Q2 and $554 billion for Q3, while short-term T-Bill issuance continues to be high [19][23][20] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong despite high short positions, with the total short position in 2-year Treasuries rising to $420.2 billion, reflecting ongoing basis trading [28][24][32] - The liquidity in the Treasury market is observed to be adequate, with the SOFR rate averaging 4.28% and the ON RRP usage increasing to $183.35 billion per day [37][43][46] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment shows that inflation is not expected to rebound significantly, with the report suggesting that the economic downturn pressure outweighs inflationary pressures [66][75][76] - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve may misjudge inflation trends, potentially leading to a resumption of quantitative easing if financial stability risks increase [73][74][76] - The overall economic outlook indicates that the U.S. economy may face two scenarios: increased pressure from trade wars or financial stability risks due to declining stock and bond markets [75][76]