生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250617

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4]. - The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4]. - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - On June 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 500 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,850 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,750 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on June 16 was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan or 0.64% from June 13. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased to varying degrees [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of the 01, 07 contracts increased slightly, while the prices of the 03, 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased slightly [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 200 yuan to 520 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.5% [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - The view is weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs is abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, the demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters, if there is concentrated and large - scale weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows, and the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].