东吴证券晨会纪要-20250617

Macro Strategy - Economic resilience is observed in May, with industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and service production index rising by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a slight weakening in industrial supply and a slight strengthening in services [1] - Retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, showing a recovery in domestic demand, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.7%, reflecting a decline in investment growth [1] - The report highlights three distinct economic narratives: (1) sectors supported by policies such as infrastructure and durable goods consumption, (2) new productive forces with strong endogenous momentum, and (3) real estate and non-subsidized consumption sectors showing weaker performance [1] - The overall economic growth target of around 5% for the year is expected to be achieved, but the pace and structure of economic growth will depend on the evolution of these narratives [1] Industry Insights Construction and Decoration Industry - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote the construction of "good houses" and stabilize the real estate market, indicating potential policy support for real estate investment [10] - Infrastructure investment remains stable, with significant growth in water conservancy and transportation sectors, suggesting a focus on major infrastructure projects [10] - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises with low valuations and stable performance, such as China Communications Construction and China Electric Power [10] Retail Industry - Non-American exports show resilience, with a focus on the strategic position of small commodity cities as export hubs [11] - The automotive sector is expected to perform well, driven by technological innovation and market dynamics, despite some challenges in the supply chain [11] Public Utilities Industry - Investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power are highlighted, with recommendations for companies like China Power Investment and Huadian International [13] - The report notes the potential for growth in nuclear power and renewable energy sectors, with specific recommendations for companies involved in these areas [13] Renewable Energy and Storage - The report indicates a significant demand for energy storage in emerging markets, with expectations of a 20-30% growth in installations in the US [18] - Companies like CATL and BYD are recommended as leading players in the lithium battery sector, benefiting from the growing demand for energy storage solutions [18] Non-Banking Financial Industry - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a focus on health and pension insurance [19] - The securities industry is poised for growth due to favorable market conditions and policy support, with recommendations for companies like CITIC Securities and China Ping An [19]