集运日报：SCFIS指数涨幅较小，06合约升水较大，现货运价小幅波动，盘面震荡运行，风险偏好者可考虑逢高试空-20250617

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the SCFIS index has a small increase, the 06 contract has a large premium, spot freight rates fluctuate slightly, and the market is oscillating. Given that the European line has strong macro - attributes and the recent game is difficult, and there is no substantial progress in the Sino - US talks, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise without more positive news. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [1][2]. 3. Content Summary by Aspects Freight Rate Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [1]. Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), and composite PMI flash was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [1]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [1]. Market Situation and Strategy - Crude oil dropped significantly last night. The European line has strong macro - attributes, and the recent game is difficult. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [2]. - On June 16, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.0, down 4.04%, with a trading volume of 65,900 lots and an open interest of 43,700 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from the previous day [2]. - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is mainly based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2250, and try long positions for the 2510 contract below 1450, with stop - losses set [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to the near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and the market is volatile. For now, it is mainly in a positive spread structure [2]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the market to stabilize after a pullback [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical Situation - The Middle East situation continues to escalate. Israel and Iran have launched multiple rounds of attacks on each other. Iraq supports Iran and is committed to preventing the expansion of the conflict [3].