FICC日报：地缘局势缓解，股指反弹-20250617

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has boosted global market risk appetite, leading to a technical rebound in major stock indices. However, domestic funds remain cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestic Economy: In May, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed-asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May, the decline in new construction continued to narrow at a low level, the decline in investment slightly expanded, and the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months [1]. - Overseas Situation: Iran has expressed its willingness to restart negotiations on the premise that the United States does not participate in the Israeli attack, and hopes to limit the attacks to a limited scope [1]. - Stock Market Performance: A-share three major indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.26%. The sector indices rose more and fell less, with the media, communication, computer, and real estate industries leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% to 19701.21 points [1]. Futures Market - Basis: This Friday, the current-month contracts were delivered, and the basis of IF, IH, and IC rebounded. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of all stock index futures decreased [2]. Strategy - Driven by the positive signal of the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the risk appetite of the global market has been repaired, and the main stock indices have shown a technical rebound. The domestic capital market remains cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [3]. Chart Summary - Macroeconomic Charts: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][6]. - Spot Market Tracking Charts: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, the trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the margin trading balance [12]. - Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts: Present the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis of stock index futures, and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [15][35][40].