新能源及有色金属日报：俄铜到港打压升水报价，铜价维持震荡格局-20250617

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [6] - Option investment rating: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic long - term contract prices are still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and future demand outlook is highly uncertain. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On June 16, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 77,910 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the night - session was 78,640 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,650 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, in the morning, the offer of iron peak copper with a premium of about 200 yuan/ton was quickly snapped up. Subsequently, the premium of market supplies was 230 - 280 yuan/ton. The supply of high - quality copper remained tight with a premium of 330 - 350 yuan/ton. The premium of BMK, BOR, etc. was 160 - 180 yuan/ton. Due to the contract change, most holders were reluctant to sell at low prices. Thousands of tons of Russian copper arrived over the weekend, with a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton for transactions. It is expected that today's spot premium will start above 200 yuan/ton [2] 1.3 Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials signaled their intention to end hostilities and resume nuclear - project negotiations. They are willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. The weekend's geopolitical conflicts did not affect the transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil price did not rise further, and the Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts remained cautious, with the US dollar gradually stabilizing [3] - Domestic Aspects: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3] 1.4 Mining End - The open - pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of Vientiane Mining, a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., officially started. It is the first large - scale copper project restarted since 2021, marking Vientiane Mining's return to the "gold - copper parallel" era. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit point [4] 1.5 Smelting and Import - According to Mysteel, the spot trading volume of electrolytic copper of 53 domestic trading enterprises was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons or 12% from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, the market quotes varied on the delivery day, and the downstream's purchasing sentiment was low, and the trading activities of trading enterprises also declined [4] 1.6 Consumption - According to Mysteel, the order volume of 31 domestic copper rod production enterprises was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons or 55.77% from the previous trading day. Among them, the order volume of refined copper rods was 0.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.39 million tons or 63.29%, and the order volume of recycled copper rods was 0.27 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons or 14.24% [5] 1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,782 tons to 47,051 tons. On June 16, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.77 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons from the previous week [5] 2. Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [6] - Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6]