Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - Related News: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - Trading Strategy: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - Related News: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - Related News: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - Related News: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - Trading Strategy: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - Market Review: No specific market review data provided - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - Trading Strategy: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - Related News: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - Related News: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - Related News: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - Related News: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - Related News: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - Related News: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - Trading Strategy: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - Related News: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - Trading Strategy: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - Market Review: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - Related News: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - Trading Strategy: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - Market Review: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - Related News: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - Trading Strategy: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - Related News: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - Market Review: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - Related News: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - Market Review: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - Related News: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - Trading Strategy: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - Market Review: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - Related News: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - Related News: A tire company had development plans [48] - Trading Strategy: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250617
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-17 02:54