Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows resilience with a low household debt burden, allowing for sustained consumer spending despite higher interest rates[4] - In contrast, developed economies outside the U.S. are experiencing stagnation, with service sector activity declining and manufacturing still in contraction territory[4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation risks are present, influenced by Trump's tax cuts and tariffs, but the impact on inflation may not be felt until 2026 due to policy implementation delays[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 1-2 times in 2025, targeting a range of 4-4.25%[60] Capital Markets - The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds is projected to range between 3.7-5%, with a significant breakthrough above 5% unlikely[5] - U.S. equities are viewed as slightly positive, supported by a loosening credit environment and advancements in AI technology, although caution is advised due to potential long-term bubbles[5] Fiscal Policy and Deficits - Federal government debt interest payments are beginning to significantly impact the federal deficit, which is projected to remain high due to rising interest rates[4] - The reliance on government spending has increased, with the federal deficit showing cyclical characteristics not seen historically[66] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market remains tight, with job vacancy rates indicating a stable demand for labor, although the overall liquidity is low[42] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to remain stable in the short term, supported by sectors like healthcare and hospitality[30] Risks and Considerations - The primary risk to the U.S. economy is the potential for rising inflation, which could complicate monetary policy decisions[6] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, particularly regarding tariffs and tax cuts, adds a layer of unpredictability to economic forecasts[52]
2025年年中海外经济年度展望：美国消费动能仍在，赤字政策或延缓衰退
Dongxing Securities·2025-06-17 02:51