贵金属日评：参议院版债务上限提高至5万亿美元，伊朗寻求结束敌对状态-20250617

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Due to the fact that tariff policies have not promoted production and consumption recovery, leading to an increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to be hard to fall and easy to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Silver Market Data - Shanghai Gold Futures: The closing price was 787.93 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.93 compared to the previous day and 15.11 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 3,064.00, and the open interest was 222.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: The trading volume was 3,064.00, with a significant change compared to previous data. The open interest was 222.00, an increase of 2,092.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 73.30, with a change of 3404.30 compared to the previous day and 3452.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 189,837.00, and the open interest was 324,992.00 [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3397.60 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 37.75 compared to the previous day and an increase of 57.70 compared to the previous week [1]. - Shanghai Silver Futures: The closing price was 8887.00, with relevant changes in trading volume and open interest [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 36.37, and there were corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, etc. [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 36.19 dollars/ounce [1]. Important Information - Geopolitical: Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end hostilities and is willing to return to the nuclear - issue negotiation table if the US does not participate in attacks [1]. - US Fiscal Policy: The US Senate - version Republican tax bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, 1 trillion dollars higher than the House plan. It also plans to make three corporate tax breaks permanent but has not reached a final agreement on "state and local tax deductions" (SALT) [1]. - Inflation and Central Bank Policies: - US May consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations for September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with market expectations of about one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, with market expectations of about two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3000 - 3200 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8300 - 8500 and the resistance level around 9500 - 10000 [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was 11.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was - 2.68 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 73.18 dollars/barrel [1]. - Base Metals: Shanghai copper futures were 78550.00 yuan/ton, LME copper cash was 47.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 2974.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 1.50 yuan/ton [1]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.39%, the US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4600%, and the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.2000%. The US dollar index was 99.2031, and the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1772 [1]. - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3.91, the S&P 500 was 32.75, and other major global stock indices also had corresponding values and changes [1].