实体经济融资需求结构优化，边际改善可期

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - The financing demand structure of the real economy is optimizing, with a marginal improvement expected. In May, new RMB loans under the social financing (社融) measure amounted to 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards bond financing and debt repayment funds replacing credit financing[12] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated in May, with a total issuance of 763.31 billion yuan, which may have contributed to the stability of financing demand in the real economy[13] - M1 growth rate in May was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a marginal improvement in economic activity[19] Group 2: Deposit and Loan Trends - In May, new RMB deposits reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 50 billion yuan and corporate deposits increasing by 382.4 billion yuan[17] - The growth of loans and deposits showed divergence, with new loans of 620 billion yuan in May, significantly lower than the increase in deposits, suggesting a weakening of the credit creation mechanism[17] - The M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rate gap narrowed to -5.6%, indicating an improvement in economic activity, although uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies remain high[20] Group 3: Macro Environment and Risks - The U.S. tariff policy continues to be a major concern affecting the macroeconomic environment, with no significant impact on inflation observed yet[5] - The global economic landscape shows signs of weak recovery in Europe, while Japan faces challenges due to high inflation, influenced by U.S. tariff policies[5] - Risks include potential escalation of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[6]