农产品日报：需求持续疲软，猪价维持震荡-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, the futures price is boosted by state purchasing, but the supply - demand imbalance of more supply and less demand will continue due to weight reduction of pigs for sale and stable consumption demand. In the long run, with profits in pig farming, there's little possibility of short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price is likely to be under pressure. The prospects of frozen pork and second - round fattening demand are not good, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will persist [2] - In the egg market, as schools are on holiday, school demand declines, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.28 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.58 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 500, up 280; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 800, up 300; in Sichuan, it was LH09 + 200, up 160 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on June 16: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.83, down 0.12 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.86, down 0.14 points. The average price of pork was 20.37 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; beef was 63.45 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; eggs were 7.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; white - striped chicken was 17.20 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Market Analysis - The futures price is supported by state purchasing, but the weight reduction of pigs for sale is just starting, and the supply is expected to increase. With stable consumption demand, the oversupply situation will continue. There are still profits in pig farming, so there's little short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price will likely be under pressure. The demand for frozen pork and second - round fattening won't increase significantly [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, a change of + 26.00 yuan (+ 0.73%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.49 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD07 - 1092, up 64; in Shandong, it was JD07 - 882, up 74; in Hebei, it was JD07 - 962, up 34 [3] - On June 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, down 0.23 days from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.19 days, down 0.33 days [3] Market Analysis - School demand declines as schools are on holiday, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]