新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货价格快速回落-20250617

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices may face difficulties in breaking upward without unexpected positive stimuli and could return to the previous plateau after the contract rollover, while the risk of cost collapse should be watched [4] - Alumina supply is expected to remain in excess with the release of new capacity and the recovery of previously maintained capacity, despite current slow提货 issues [6] - Aluminum alloy prices have limited upside during the off - season, but cost support exists, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum - Spot prices: Yangtze River A00 aluminum was 20630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum was 20420 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20375 yuan/ton, closed at 20405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.1%), with a trading volume of 156076 lots and an open interest of 204300 lots [2] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 45.8 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 351200 tons, down 2025 tons [2] Alumina - Spot prices: On June 16, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3200 yuan/ton in Shanxi and Shandong, 3250 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and FOB price in Australia was 370 dollars/ton [3] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2850 yuan/ton, closed at 2852 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.73%), with a trading volume of 294017 lots and an open interest of 298925 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On June 16, 2025, Baotai's civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15400 yuan/ton, mechanical aluminum scrap was 15500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; ADC12 Baotai quote was 19600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Inventory: The total aluminum alloy inventory was 10.73 tons, down 0.41 tons week - on - week [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Aluminum - Supply: There is a risk of production cuts at Rio Tinto's electrolytic aluminum plants in Australia [4] - Demand: Consumption shows signs of weakening marginally, and the inventory drawdown has slowed [4] - Market situation: The soft squeeze may have ended, and upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may be difficult without unexpected positive factors [4] Alumina - Supply: Industry profits have recovered, with production and inventory rising due to capacity restart and new capacity output [6] - Cost: Alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and domestic imported ore prices are hard to rise despite high freight [6] Aluminum Alloy - Market: It is in the off - season, with limited price upside, but cost support exists [6] - Arbitrage: Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities with the 11 - contract becoming a peak - season contract [6] Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [7]