化工日报：周末伊以冲突加剧，但瓶片减产计划增多-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the intensified Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the crude oil price first soared and then declined, and the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly accordingly. The planned production cuts of bottle chips increased, and the polyester industry chain was under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation [1]. - Regarding the cost side, the recent oil price has risen sharply due to the intensified Middle - East conflict. If the conflict causes more damage to energy facilities or affects the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may face further upward risks; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline again. The gasoline cracking spread in the US has retracted, and the blending demand is not promising. The PX short - process plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 234 dollars/ton (with no change from the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has generally increased recently, but it will decline again in July. The tight supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was 231 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the spot processing fee was 310 yuan/ton (a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The PTA load continued to increase this week, and the supply became more abundant. It is expected that the PTA spot price will oscillate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.9% (a 0.2% decrease from the previous period). The terminal orders have weakened again since late May, and the downstream operating rates have declined slightly. The polyester load has remained stable recently after a decline, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (a 26 - yuan increase from the previous period). The price will remain high under the low inventory of short - fiber factories and the operation to maintain the processing margin [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 309 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip price increased following the raw materials, but the new order procurement enthusiasm of overseas customers was not high due to the high ocean freight in June. The inventory pressure of polyester bottle - chip factories has increased again. The production cuts of major factories are being implemented, and the processing fee is expected to face pressure in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests that PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short term under the Israel - Iran conflict, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and further production - cut actions of polyester and the geopolitical conflict need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East - China spot basis and the basis of 1.56D*38mm semi - dull pure - white short fibers [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, the spread between South Korean FOB toluene and Japanese CFR naphtha, and the PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It provides information on the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [29][32][33]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are presented [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It shows the production and sales of filaments and short fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Also, the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments are provided [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester short - fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rates and production profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and the spread between raw and recycled polyester short fibers [73][81][83]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It presents the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and the price spreads between different periods of bottle chips [90][92][97].