中东冲突暂未进一步升级，油价回吐涨幅

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not further escalated, and oil prices have given back their gains. Although the situation has not worsened, there may be more attacks on energy facilities in the future, and oil prices will remain highly volatile in the short term. The strategy is for oil prices to oscillate strongly in the medium - term with a short - position configuration [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Oil prices declined: The July - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% drop; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.94% at 530 yuan per barrel [1]. - Iran's nuclear - related situation: Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the NPT, but Tehran still opposes developing weapons of mass destruction. Iran won't negotiate with the US until its response to Israeli attacks is completed [1]. - Israel's stance: Israel said its actions against Iran may take 2 - 3 weeks, depending on political leadership's decisions. If Iran accepts US demands to abandon its nuclear program, Israel is willing to stop its actions [1]. - Warning from Iraq: Iraq's foreign minister warned that intensified Middle - East tensions and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices up to $300 per barrel, raising European inflation and complicating oil exports from countries like Iraq. Closing the Strait would reduce global oil supply by about 5 million barrels per day [1]. - Goods transportation through the Strait of Hormuz: The number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased slightly to 111 on the 15th, down from 116 on June 12, but major oil infrastructure has not been significantly disrupted [1]. - OPEC monthly report: OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day, and OPEC +'s average daily production was 41.23 million barrels, an 180,000 - barrel increase from April. It expects the global economy to perform well in the second half of 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - Israel has not launched further attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure after weekend attacks. It may focus on regime power centers, assassinations, and missile/nuclear targets. The easing situation has relieved the market, but more energy - facility attacks are possible, and short - term oil prices will be highly volatile [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and a medium - term short - position configuration is recommended [3].