黑色建材日报：市场情绪谨慎，钢价震荡运行-20250617

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [8][9] Core Views - Steel market sentiment is cautious, and steel prices are oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant currently, and future focus is on Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is in the shipping peak season, with an overall supply recovery trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the molten iron output in the off - season and inventory changes [3] - Coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating. Although the supply - demand relationship has improved to some extent, the long - term supply is still loose, and the price rebound is restricted [5][6] - Thermal coal prices lack demand support in the short - term, and the supply is loose in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2,990 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,104 yuan/ton. The national steel city inventory was 3.6911 million tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 1.696 million tons, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. The national building materials transaction volume was 110,200 tons. Rebar is in the consumption off - season, and weak demand will suppress prices. Hot - rolled coil has better profits and stronger production and sales resilience, but there are concerns about future consumption after the export rush fades [1] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated narrowly. The main 2509 contract closed at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 973,000 tons, a 21.47% week - on - week increase; the forward spot trading volume was 870,000 tons, a 7.45% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly to 33.53 million tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 23.845 million tons, an 8.6% week - on - week decrease [3] - Strategy: Sideways to bearish for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1,371 yuan, up 1.90%; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.5 yuan, up 2.84%. The imported Mongolian coal spot price was weaker than the futures price. Coke supply is decreasing due to narrowing profits and environmental policies, and there is a price cut expectation. Coking coal supply has decreased due to some mines' production restrictions, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing [5][6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In May, the industrial raw coal output was 4 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. In Shanxi, environmental inspections have been upgraded, and the estimated production suspension capacity is about 10.5 million tons. The market demand is average, and the price is in a stalemate. The port market trading is sluggish, and the downstream demand is poor. The high - calorie imported coal price is firm, while the low - calorie price is falling [8] - Strategy: No strategy provided [9]