华宝期货晨报煤焦-20250617

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view is that the short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling, but fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coal and coke have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large, so prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, affected by the news of coal mine production cuts in the production areas, the overall price of coal and coke continued a slight rebound trend. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area has been stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period; coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - According to Mysteel research, due to environmental protection factors, inspections in multiple areas of Linfen have become stricter. Some pit coal washing plants in Pu County have stopped production, involving a pit coal washing capacity of 8.7 million tons, and the resumption time is uncertain. Some coal mines also have production - stop plans, and the number of passively or actively shut - down coal mines in the region may increase in the short term, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of coking coal in Linfen [2] - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons with a slightly slower growth rate; the raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production - cut behavior of coal mines, and the driving force for coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals is still insufficient [2]