Shanxi Securities·2025-06-17 03:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating expected performance to lead the market [2][42]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance with policy stimuli and recovering sales, particularly in the retail space [4]. - The export growth of home appliances has shifted from explosive replenishment to stable demand support, with a notable decline in May's export volume [20]. - The imposition of a 50% import tariff by the U.S. on various steel home appliances is expected to significantly impact exports, particularly for refrigerators and washing machines [16][12]. Summary by Sections White Goods Production - Production growth rates for household air conditioners and refrigerators are gradually slowing, while washing machine production remains stable. In June, air conditioner production is projected at 20.5 million units, with growth rates of 11.5%, 6.3%, and 2.7% for June to August. Refrigerator production is expected at 7.9 million units, with growth rates of 3.6%, -0.7%, and -5.5% [12][15]. - Domestic air conditioner production is experiencing significant growth, while external sales are declining due to high inventory levels and tariff adjustments [12][15]. Home Appliance Exports - In May, the export volume of home appliances turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 8.87% in export value, totaling $8.21 billion, and a 5.93% drop in export volume, amounting to 386 million units [20]. - The industry is transitioning to a "new normal" growth rate, focusing on emerging markets and product upgrades amid geopolitical risks [20]. Raw Materials - Prices for raw materials, such as rebar, are stable, with a decrease in rebar prices by 4.14% to 2961 yuan per ton, indicating minimal cost pressure on the home appliance industry [26]. Shipping Costs - Shipping costs have surged due to tight capacity across multiple routes, with the comprehensive index for Chinese export container freight rising by 7.63% to 1243.05 [31]. - The increase in shipping costs is attributed to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand, impacting the overall cost structure for large goods like home appliances [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main investment strategies: 1. Configuration Type: Focus on white goods with high performance and limited valuation downside, recommending stocks like Midea Group and Gree Electric [37]. 2. Turning Point Type: Anticipating a recovery in small appliances and kitchen appliances due to low baselines and stimulus policies, with stocks like XGIMI Technology and Bear Electric [37]. 3. Prosperity Type: Emphasizing the competitive advantage of domestic black goods brands amid technological upgrades, recommending stocks like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics [37]. 4. Theme Type: Highlighting opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, suggesting stocks like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Dechang Technology [37].